A lot of eminently reasonable people have been reminding you, haven't they, that in this raging election, with its military themes spilling over into the campaign and media metaphors ( - "the ground war to register voters" - and other unthinking babble), it really comes down to one thing: it's still the economy, stupid! Economists say if Bush keeps unemployment and inflation in check, he will be re-elected. And while this insight, such as it is, is neither new nor compelling, it does keep providing an angle on current events as we hurtle towards due deliverance.
Certainly politicians are too easily blamed for a stalling economy, and too eagerly take credit for well-performing markets. While politicians have historically proven all too able to exert their influence through regulation, taxation, jawboning... the facts remain: interest rates are set by non-elected administrators, financial institutions are hardly ever (only in extremis) regulated by representatives of the people (some people might remember President Clinton cursing the "bunch of fucking bond traders" he had to keep giving in to in matters of international trade etc), and it is we the people who are the economy.
However, an important perspective is the inverse: how does Wall Street like this or that candidate? The assumption generally remains that despite some centimillionaire Democrats here and there, the mainstream of the investor class likes Republicans. Polls of fund managers and traders tend to indicate an overwhelming majority supporting President Bush; banks and funds show their allegiance with the checkbooks. No doubt the main reason for this is the tax policy of the current administration, favoring the rich (although increasing the federal deficit - in flagrant contradiction of long-standing Republican principle...)
Nevertheless, historically the average gain for equity markets under Republican presidents is 3.7%, while it has been 10.6% on average with a Democrat in the White House. Republican Presidents ruled over the three great bear markets of the century, and half of them left the stock markets lower than when they took office. And while Republicans love to extol the virtues of small government as a boon to investment, the current administration allowed federal spending to rise almost by a third! "Hands off regulation" - a staid Republican motto - was ignored in favor of new steel tariffs and higher farm subsidies. NEW STEEL TARIFFS! HIGHER FARM SUBSIDIES!
On the other hand, not all commonplace notions have been thrown out (yet). If you're looking over the predictions issued by Wall Streeters, it seems most would expect Kerry-Edwards to be tougher on pharmaceuticals than Bush-Cheney; defense stocks have been buoyed by the Iraq and Afghanistan engagements, which may or may not be scaled back if the White House changes hands. This kind of knee-jerk, "Farmer's Almanac" style horizon of expectations is undeterred by anything like experience, plain facts, or widely available stump speech quotes... Common sense, as wrong as ever, continues to dominate. And as long as enough people believe Republicans are for small government, reducing federal debt, and eliminating subsidies and trade restrictions - and as long as enough people go on to believe Democrats were really all raised in France by homosexual couples - this upcoming election will succeed in distracting you all from what is going on.